The beginning of a new year is a dangerous time. Not only does it incur a rush of resolutions (mostly soon abandoned) but also attracts a range of sometimes wild predictions (more often wrong than right). Regardless of such failings, both remain popular pastimes.

I was tempted to join the throng of crystal ball watchers after browsing through some of my old Cape Wine Centre newsletters penned when I worked for this old Drop Inn offshoot in the early 1980s. One, in particular caught my attention. In February 1984, the now late Tony Lord (editor of Decanter magazine and also its founder with Colin Parnell in 1975) presented a Bordeaux tasting for readers. The message he gave us was: `Buy wines from the world's great winelands - France, Germany and Italy - now, for in 20 years' time these wines will only be within the financial reach of the world's richest people.' He claimed that Bordeaux, which then produced sufficient to supply demand, wouldn't be able to increase production to keep up with demand in 2004, nor would technological expertise be able to be improved. Lord's conclusion was, `that demand will soon outstrip supply, resulting in prices that are so high that a bottle of quality claret will become a rare item on a restaurant's wine list, let alone in our own cellars.'

In the event, the best German wines remain remarkable value when viewed against those from France or Italy, Bordeaux and Piedmont or Tuscany in particular. Lord was correct about the top Bordeaux - the First Growths and other highly-regarded classified growths, as well as the Right Bank favourites - which are now being snapped up at stratospheric prices in Asia (bet he wouldn't have predicted that!). Otherwise, there's more than enough Bordeaux and, thanks to determined efforts by owners, there's much more quality wine at sensible prices coming out of previously disregarded areas of Bordeaux. I'm sure Tony Lord would be delighted, if surprised about that.

One other prediction from days gone by that I must include is this from an article by Nick Vink, Gavin Williams and Johann Kirsten focusing on political, social and economic changes in South Africa affect all involved in the wine industry. It reads: Van Zyl (1993, p. 33) quotes a wine farmer as warning in 1918, at the beginning of a boom period for the industry, that he was 'bang dat 't te lekker gaan. Die surplus sal kom want men plant agter die prys aan' (he was 'frightened that it was going too well. The surplus will come [back] because one plants after the price'). If that will have had resonance for South African wine farmers then, (things are often the other way around today), it will surely have our colleagues across the Indian Ocean in Australia mournfully nodding agreement.

To explore what 2010 holds in store, I asked a few colleagues, both local and further afield for their views (most replied with stony silence!).

Michael Fridjhon backed Tony Lord's views on Bordeaux, suggesting there are insufficient buyers for too much good wine to support the insane prices the French have charged for Bordeaux in particular. Apart from First Growths, which the Chinese will ensure sell for prices beyond the pockets of the rest of us, the rest `will finally have to give up the smoke-and-mirrors game and drop prices if they want to clear the pipeline.'

Locally, a strong Rand will mean exports will continue to be at a loss, especially to the UK. Unless the local market picks up, Michael wonders whether the unfulfilled bankruptcies predicted for 2003 to 2006 will now occur. We are surely sitting on some sort of time bomb. With around 50 new producers annually at one end and a Noah's ark of unsold wine at the other (entries to Wine magazine's Merlot category I judged on this week were double last year's line up and I understand even the older wine category has had to be extended to two days) something has to give.

But in the end, the fittest and most efficient will survive - and thrive. I see a growing movement towards organic farming; the wine from organically grown grapes has a mixed image - rightly so; there are some excellent, distinctive wines and some absolute rubbish. But there is no logic in associating poor wines with the method the grapes were grown. If, as most organic producers do, sulphur levels are kept low, much more care is demanded in cellar practices. Many producers practising organics ferment using the grape's own yeasts; not only does this produce more subtle, interesting flavours, but often results in lower alcohols. High alcohols, whether in balance or not, are an issue; anything that helps to reduce them would be generally welcome. Maybe this will be the year it will be a notable feature.

This notion segues nicely into Melvyn Minnaar's more philosophical prediction, which is that wine will be rather less propelled by economic considerations, more as an expression of human endeavour.

With the continued move to organics, I see the corollary of a re-think on packaging; more people will use light(er) weight bottles and a qualified return to the use of natural cork. I say qualified, as I'm sure that use of screwcaps will increase on specific wines but, from various conversations, I think winemakers are more confident that there are fewer problems with cork taint. Certainly the incidence of TCA on our merlot tasting was much reduced, no more than 3 or 4 wines out of 138.

I could list many more, but most are contained in Business Week and San Francisco Chronicle; some echo mine, others not.

One thing I can predict with (sadly) little chance of being wrong is being about to afford a case of this: