Showtime in the Cape starts round about now, and continues unabated until the end of the year. The season opens with the results of the Mondiales and the Old Mutual Trophy Wine Show, it gathers momentum with the Terroir, the Michelangelo and the Winemakers' Choice awards, followed by the Platter Five Star laureates, the Young Wine Show and finally Veritas.

While for many critics the hype of the next few months is a noisy distraction, even the most hardened wine competition cynic admits that some valuable patterns do emerge from carefully run shows. Last year, for example, the Trophy Wine Show 'discovered' the newly launched Haskell Pillars 2007 Syrah. It emerged as one of four gold medals from a class of over 150 entries, its defining features silken tannins and an aroma of violets.

On the strength of its performance at the Old Mutual show, it was one of the South African entries in the Tri-Nations Challenge held a few months later in Sydney. There it was judged the best shiraz in the competition, going on to take the trophy for the best wine of show. At much the same time it made it to the Platter Five Star judging - which is conducted 'blind'  - and was one of five shirazes to get a five star rating. In less than six months its status had changed from 'unknown' to 'oversold.'

The results of the 2010 Old Mutual Trophy Wine Show were announced on Monday. Their real usefulness - for consumers and for the industry alike - lies in discerning patterns of exactly the Haskell kind. For example, the emergence of Tokara as the Show's most successful producer can hardly count as a surprise. The winery has just completed its first decade: Miles Mossop has won a succession of trophies over the past few years. As Tokara's vines acquired greater age (which means potentially more complex and intense fruit) this outcome was predictable.

Likewise the success of the Eagles' Nest Shiraz 2008 (it won the BA Comair Shiraz Trophy as well as the trophy for the best red on show) might have been anticipated: the 2006 carried off exactly the same awards in 2008. The other Shiraz gold went to the 2008 Dunstone Shiraz - a Platter Five Star laureate from the same tasting in which the Haskell did so well.

Read with a degree of selectivity, show results are a useful guide to form. Rijk's Chenin Blanc won a trophy this year - a previous vintage was a gold medallist. Chamonix has now won a Museum Class Trophy for its Chardonnay three years out of the past four. Cape Point's Semillon 2005 picked up a Museum Trophy this year to go with the trophy it won as a young wine three years ago. Tokara's white blend repeated the trophy triumph of an earlier vintage, so did the Nuy white Muscadel.

However, as important as the trophies and golds are, it is the overall performance of the winery - calculated by way of an arcane scoring system which loads the points allocated to medals depending on their relative rarity - which reflects the shifting balance of power in the industry. Tokara has moved up from fifth slot to number one. Cape Chamonix - a trophy winner for its Pinot and its museum class chardonnay (the current release is a Platter Five Star winner) has moved into the number two position. Rijk's is in third slot and KWV - freshly bedecked in medals from the Mondiales - is in fourth place.

We know from the recent survey conducted by the online wine site Grape that the top end of the industry is dynamic. The major players from a few years back have already been overtaken by the new kids on the block - several of whom were not even producing wine in the 1990s. If nothing else, wine shows should point the direction and record the progress.

For full results go to www.trophywineshow.co.za

Michael Fridjhon is part owner and chair of the judging panel  at the 2010 Trophy Wine Show

From Business Day, 19 May 2009